BY STEVE KELMAN
TEANECK, N.J.—New Jersey State Climatologist David Robinson provided an overview of the state’s changing climate as part of a lecture presentation that recently took place at the Puffin Cultural Forum in Teaneck.
“My goal is to provide a better understanding of the climate system and what is going on out there, Robinson told the assemblage at the Nov. 26 presentation.
Early on in the lecture, Robinson commented that weather in the Garden State “gives us a taste of everything… But we tend not to get the worst of the worst.”
That weather variety includes tornadoes (there were multiple in the state this year), a drought that occurred in March, along with occasional large hail, flash floods, river floods, ice storms, snow and heavy snow.
Robinson said the drought emergency that happened in March had last occurred in 2002.
A review of past weather events included the Nor’easter of 1962, Tropical Storm Floyd in 1999, the Dec. 26 snowstorm in 2010, Hurricane Irene back on Aug. 29, 2011, and Superstorm Sandy on Oct. 29, 2012.
“Sandy was a transformative event for the state,” Robinson said, adding that it changed long term planning in a number of disciplines, including transportation, infrastructure and even the way he teaches climate courses at Rutgers University.
Robinson noted that there are still 700 families displaced by Sandy who have still not been able to move back into their homes more than seven years later.
Citing recent scientific reports Robinson told the assemblage that, “a preponderance of evidence suggests climate change is occurring and humans are responsible for a significant portion of recent changes.”
“It [climate change] is happening now and it is affecting New Jersey,” he said.
Robinson then provided details describing how climate change is impacting the state.
Returning to weather, he said 2012 was the “warmest year in New Jersey since record keeping began in 1895.
“Six of the warmest years have occurred here since 2006,” he said.
“The long-term upward trend is 2.2 degrees Fahrenheit per 10 years,” he said.
And referring to a news story that appeared in the Washington Post this past summer, Robinson said New Jersey is quickly becoming one of the warmest states in the nation. That article stated that New Jersey’s average temperature has risen 2 degrees Celsius since 1895—“double the average for the lower 48 states.”
“We have also gotten wetter by 5% over the last century,” Robinson said, with 2018 being the wettest year on record since 1895.
Mapping out the state’s climate future moving forward Robinson said New Jersey residents can expect rising temperatures, steady or increasing precipitation, more extreme storms, floods, drought, heat and sea level rise.
With regard to rising seas, ocean levels at the Jersey Shore are predicted to rise 1 foot by 2040 and by 3 feet during the 2090s.
He said those numbers will be revised upward in a soon-to-be released report. [Editor’s note: The New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection released the report on Dec. 12, saying the new study projects “dramatic sea-level rise,” at 2.1 feet by 2050, and 6.3 feet by 2100.]
For the short-term future Robinson said he was not optimistic and that the damage has been done. However, if mitigation actions would take place, they could alleviate some of the disastrous effects that could take place at the end of this century.
“What we do today is going to be more important for the latter half of the century… We have already sealed our fate for the next 30 years, and models bear this out,” he said.
Wanting to end the presentation with “some semblance of hope,” Robinson said he believed that time does remain for “mitigation and adaptive actions.”
He pointed to a number of actions including reducing emissions of carbon dioxide and other green house gases, activism, voting, and working to “increase the resiliency of society to the effects of climate change.”
And making sure gas stations and other establishments have generators to use after damaging storms would be one such way to increase resiliency, Robinson said.
