PASCACK VALLEY REGIONAL HIGH SCHOOL DISTRICT—Approximately 100 students likely will join the two regional high schools from almost 1,000 new housing units expected to be built over the next five years.
That’s according to a new demographics study detailed at the Jan. 3 district board of education meeting.
The study’s author, Dr. Richard Grip of Statistical Forecasting LLC, said Pascack Hills High School, serving families from Montvale and Woodcliff Lake, and Pascack Valley High School, serving families from Hillsdale and River Vale, have enough classroom space and facilities to absorb the students with no negative impacts.
Grip told trustees that over the next five years, 95 additional students could be projected from the 954 total housing units approved in the four district towns, stemming from multifamily, high-density housing approved as part of court-approved affordable housing settlements.
Grip said that his study did not look at enrollments for specific elementary grades in the four towns.
The anticipated effects of new housing on enrollment, and the need for upgrades generally, already has prompted local voters to back new projects.
In December, Montvale voters approved a $29.4 million upgrade for its elementary and middle school, 603-342, with 14% of registered voters casting ballots at a special bond referendum. (“Landslide on Schools Upgrades,” Pascack Press, Dec. 17, 2021.)
On Dec. 27, we reported the Hillsdale Public School District trustees approved an $18,000 demographics study to help assess the impacts of new housing and housing turnover on its schools, including the George G. White Middle School, a candidate for replacement, with estimated costs of $65 million to $75 million.
By the numbers
Grip told the PVRHSD board on Jan. 3 that Pascack Hills High School’s capacity was 728 students, its current enrollment was 814, and its enrollment in the 2026-2027 school year is estimated at 819.
He said based on the fact that the school was operating well under current enrollment, he did not foresee any problems with the minor increase projected.
Moreover, he said Pascack Valley High School’s capacity was 1,063 students, and current enrollment was 1,008 students.
In 2026-2027, 891 students are projected, leaving room for 170-plus students at the high school.
Over the last five years, Grip said enrollment had declined at PV by about 200 students, noting it was over-enrolled three to five years ago, and enrollment has since declined.
Grip said the Pascack Valley district enrollment had dropped by 705 students from the 2012-2013 year through the 2021-2022 school year.
The largest student declines were from River Vale and Hillsdale, at 275 and 244, respectively; Montvale and River Vale showed smaller declines, at 121 and 56, respectively.
District officials said the presentation would be linked to the district website so parents could review the data and projections.
Board President Joseph Blundo asked Grip whether both schools had enough capacity to handle the students expected over the next five years and he agreed that they did.
When Blundo asked about the student projections based on housing types — specifically whether more students might be generated from residents in townhomes or apartments — Grip said a study he worked on with Rutgers University showed “declines in [student] yields over time” from townhomes and apartments.
He said the study looked at data from 1970 through 2010.
Grip said that the student projections are correct 80% of the time within 5 percentage points, although sudden changes in housing coming online or home sales might skew the student estimates.
When Blundo noted that based on the data, the four towns have “higher than average age” for their residents compared to statewide data, he wondered how other factors such as “empty nesters” selling homes might impact future enrollment numbers.
Grip noted that not everyone, including empty-nesters, sell their homes at the same time. “It hasn’t turned out that way… it’s more graduated.”
He said older residents stay due to their attachment to the community and often family living nearby.
Carolee Adams of Montvale questioned the projections noting she wished the study included projections of Fair Share Housing mandated affordable housing.
However, those affordable obligations will not be determined until July 2025 or later, when the state-mandated fourth round of affordable housing obligations begins.
“All of these towns are going to be impacted by this [new construction],” Adams said. She said she wondered if the towns would be “able to withstand the invasion of the developers” to build high-density housing, including townhomes and apartments.
She noted a recent $29.4 million school bond referendum that was approved by a “very small percentage of taxpayers” and echoed a prior comment by Pascack Valley trustee Debra Stephans, of Montvale, that it would have been helpful for voters to have had data on projected enrollment impacts on elementary and middle school grades prior to the referendum.